PA 8 The type of district we can swing

There was a new poll out in the PA 8th which I am sharing with you now as a type of oppurunity that we can help win.


With a changing political landscape that is currently punishing Republicans at all levels, Freshman Republican Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick is vulnerable going into 2006. Fitzpatrick is below 50% against a virtually unknown opponent – a dangerous sign for an incumbent.

· This is a competitive district where Democrats have a four-point advantage over Republicans on the Generic Ballot (40% Democrat / 36% Republican) – a three-point gain from a year ago.

· A majority (54%) of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of President Bush – three points higher than last year.

· Mike Fitzpatrick currently leads Patrick Murphy by only a 46% to 35% margin with 19% still undecided. Despite the fact that Fitzpatrick has a Total Name ID advantage over Murphy of almost a 4-to-1 margin (88% Fitzpatrick Total Name ID / 23% Murphy) in Bucks County, the incumbent can’t reach 50%.

· One-third (32%) of likely voters in Bucks County gave Mike Fitzpatrick a negative job rating just nine months into his first term – a troubling sign for any incumbent.

· Nearly two-thirds (61%) of all likely voters in Bucks County believe, “Abortions should be available to women who choose to have them.” Mike Fitzpatrick opposes a woman’s right to choose even in extreme cases like rape and incest.

Winning back the House in 50 seats

Dear Friends, Snap Pac Members and other in the blogosphere.
I am now including a list of the 50 House seats currently held by a Republican most likely to flip to the Democrats. I will be updating this list once a month, so if your race didn’t make it or you think it should be moved higher, or if you think a race should move down , don’t worry they will all move around.
The top ten races will be profiled following the list.


1. IA 1st
2. CO 7th
3. PA 6
4. CT 2
5. CT 4
6.WA 8
7.NC 11
8. NC 8
9. PA 8
10. IN 9th

11. FL 22nd
12. MN 6th
13.NM 1st
14. NV 3rd
15. TX 22nd
16.IL 6th
17. AZ 1st
18.MN 2nd
19.CO 4th
20. IN 8th

21. KY 3rd
22. CT 5th
23. OH 18
24. CA 50th
25. LA 7
26. MN 1st
27.NY 29th
28. NJ 7th
29. MT AL
30. NH 2nd

31.NJ 5th
32. IA2nd
33.IN 2nd
34. OH 15th
35. VA 11th
36. NH 1st
37. FL 13th
38. OH 1st
39. IL 10th
40. PA 7th

41. NY 13th
42. CA 11th
43.. FL 8th
44. AZ 8th
45. NY 25th
46. VA 2nd
47. IL 11th
48. CA 26th
49. FL 16th
50. NY 19th

Note Candidates list comes from Politics1.com

1. Iowa 1st
This race being on top should come as no surprise to anyone. Al Gore won 52 here and John Kerry won 53%. This is an open seat race in a basically blueish district. Also using the Survey USA poll and the Paul index,[ take Bush job approval in a state and divide the dip equally] The President has a 37% Job approval in the district. Possible Democratic Candidates include
Trial Lawyer Bruce Braley,
Community Development Executive Rick Diskinson
04 Nominee Ex-State Senator Bill Gluba[who got 43% of the vote]

2. Colorado 7th
An other Open Seat in a Democratic but tight district. Al Gore got 50% of the Vote here and John Kerry got 51% This district has a Paul Index number of 42%
Possible Democratic Candidates include

Morgan Carroll (D) - State Rep. & Attorney
Renny Fagan (D) - Ex-State Rep. & Deputy State Attorney General
Michael Garcia (D) - State Rep.
Deanna Hanna (D) - State Sen.
Cheri Jahn (D) - State House Speaker Pro Tem & Businesswoman
Peggy Lamm (D) - Think Tank Executive Director & Ex-State Rep. Announced
Ed Perlmutter (D) - Ex-State Sen. & Attorney Announced
Herb Rubenstein (D) - Attorney & Business Consultant Announced
Stephanie Takis (D) - State Sen.

3. Pennsylvania 6th
The swing district to end all swing districts. The Congressman in this district has won by a combined total for both his election 02 and 04 by about 12.000 votes. This district was won by Al Gore by a fraction of a point and John Kerry took 51% here. The Paul Index is
40%.
The 04 Nominee Lois Murphy will be the Candidate again in 06 Website can be found at www.loismurphy.org

4.Connecticut 2nd
A Democratic district that needs to return the fold, Al Gore took 54% here as did John Kerry.
Paul Index is 33%
The Democrat is 02 Nominee Joe Courtney who can be found at www.joecourtney.com

5. Connecticut 4th
Much like the 2nd, Al Gore took 53% here and John Kerry took 52% Paul Index is 34.
The Democrat is Diane Farrel who got 48% against the Congressman here last time.
6. Washington 8th
A newly minted Republican ripe for the picking. He took only 52% of the here in 04 while John Kerry was winning the District with 51% and Al Gore having won it previously. Paul Index is 42%
Democratic Candidates include
Ex-Microsoft-Exec Darcy Burner
Attorney Randy Gordon

7. North Carolina 11th
In a Democratic Recruitment dream, Quarterback Heath Shuler is running a district that while marginally Republican is the kind we need to turn over. Al Gore got 40% here and John Kerry got 43%. Paul Index is 48%
Heath Schuler can be found at www.heathshuler.com

8. North Carolina 8th
An Iraqi Veteran and a Congressman who makes a bone headed statement, these are the making of an a new emerging house majority. AL Gore got 46% here and John Kerry got 45%. The Paul Index is 47%
Tim Dunn is the the candidate at www.dunnforcongress.com

9. Pennsylvania 8th
Another Swing District with a new Republican Incumbent, Al Gore got 51% here as did John Kerry. Paul Index is 40%
Democratic Candidates include
04 Nominee Ginny Schrader
Iraq War Veteran Patrick Murphy
Ex-Republican County Commissioner- Andy Warren

10. Indiana 9th
The Rematch, in the last two Election cycle Baron Hill and Mike Sodrel have squared off, Baron Hill won the first match up, 51% to 46%. Mike Sodrel won the second by less 2000 votes. The rubber match is on and control of Congress could be at stake. Al Gore got 42% here, John Kerry got 40%. Paul Index is 47%
Baron can be found and www.bringbackbaron.com